Apr 29 2008

Today’s Trading Look-Back – April 29, 2008

Published by John at 5:20 pm under Trading After-Action

Even though I missed yesterday’s oh so exciting day (right!), I still felt pretty good developing an expectation for today’s trading. Given the FOMC meeting and the Payrolls data this week, it was always likely to be a balancing day. And given that the open was going to be somewhere in the middle 1390s, it strongly favored a range contained by yesterday’s 1401 point of control and Friday’s 1388 one.

S&P 500 Futures Price Distribution Chart for April 29, 2008

Now 1394 was Thursday’s point of control, which really also represented the top of a large joint value area down to 1386 shared by Thursday and Friday. That being the case, I knew it was pretty good odds that if 1394 was broken the market would continue down. So I shorted when that happened and grabbed a few points on the drop.

Once the market reached the lower end of the proscribed range, I saw a buying opportunity when downside momentum was clearly fading. Unfortunately, I got tricked out of the position by the internals and didn’t stick around long enough to grab the relatively easy points from

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